Ready, set, GO! This Thursday will mark the first Election Day of the 2008 Presidential Race. It’s actually pretty late considering that many of the candidates (from both political parties) declared their intentions to run for the White House earlier this year, i.e. Clinton and Obama had exploratory committees set up one year ago.
Yet with all the stump speeches, bus road trips, flights and kissing babies that these candidates have done over the past year, everything boils down to getting voters to show up and vote. Iowa, centered in America’s heartland, becomes the first litmus test to see if the thousands (some millions) of dollars the candidates spent will pay off.
Let’s see where the major frontrunners stand. First the Democrats:
Hillary Clinton. Political pundits and the media like to put her on the top of the polls because she has something that the other candidates in the field don’t have—and no, it’s not because she’s the only woman running for the presidency. She has name recognition and the backing of her popular husband, former President Bill Clinton. But, as we have seen in recent months, being a Clinton doesn’t guarantee an easy victory: David Geffen and other Hollywood moguls—once loyal Clintonites—now back Senator Barack Obama. Few in-house scandals within the Clinton campaign have cast some negativity that has reflected on her. All that being said, Robert Zimmerman, a Clinton campaign donor and member of the DNC said it best, “[t]he notion of front runner is obsolete in American politics.” In other words, there is no such thing as a lead when there haven’t been any votes to count.
Barack Obama. Let’s face it. What Obama has that other candidates in the field don’t have is outright superstar charisma. Sure, political pundits gripe about his lack of substance in policy issues; however his message of change and hope resonates with the electorate. Where does one find a candidate who can attract thousands of supporters during rallies? Barack Obama did it in Los Angeles, Austin and Oakland to name a few cities. He has won support from people inactive from politics and many have compared him to Robert Kennedy. Not bad for a junior senator from Illinois.
John Edwards. It’s easy to like John Edwards. His message of fighting for the little guy and progressive politics resonates with the American people. The tenacity of his wife, Elizabeth, suffering from cancer, and still campaigning for her husband, personifies sacrifice. The only problems for John Edwards are the two frontrunners ahead of him in Obama and Clinton.
X-Factor: While recent polls indicate that these three Democratic frontrunners are at a virtual tie, I predict that the x-factor in the Iowa Caucus will be the ones who actually turn out to caucus.
The bottom line is this: if more women show, the edge will have to go to Clinton. If the Obama campaign is successful in recruiting young people to caucus for him (especially those students who are from out-of state), I would have to give the edge to Obama. If the weather turns nasty, count on the Edwards’ loyal supporters to show up and cast their votes. If that turns out to be the case, Edwards can possibly pull off an upset victory.
Let’s look briefly at the Republicans.
There are essentially three Republican candidates vying for Iowa and one of them isn’t Rudy Giuliani. That’s because Giuliani decided to sit Iowa out and bet on the larger states like New York where he, no doubt, has the advantage. The strategy for Mitt Romney is to do the exact opposite: win the early states like Iowa and New Hampshire and hope to ride the momentum leading to the bigger states. The candidate who decided to cut Romney off is former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. With Huckabee essentially attacking Romney’s religion and character, Huckabee has methodically fought himself back to a dead-heat with Romney in Iowa. Both the Romney and Huckabee campaigns are coming to this final week trading blows and airing negative campaign ads. It’s too early to know how voters will react to these negative ads, but if Iowans react negatively to the negativity, that may swing voters to John McCain’s camp. Just like the Democrats, you may have the dark horse in McCain pulling off the victory in Iowa.
Politics is just like predicting the BCS in college football; rankings don't assure victory, the big game does. So it is with politics, Election Day is what matters most. We’ll find out Thursday.
